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Body Inflation Game

Body Inflation Game

Enough Already Humble. Dollar. Enough Already. Jonathan Clements    October 7, 2. WHEN YOUVE WON THE GAME, stop playing with the money you really need. Thats something my longtime friend and fellow author William Bernstein is fond of sayingand lately its been on my mind. Body Inflation GameTheres been much handwringing over 2. Looked at objectively, it hasnt been that startling. As of Sept. 2. 9, the S P 5. Moreover, this years gain follows two years when the market notched an average 6. On the other hand, the S P has soared an average 1. U. S. stock market valuations are undoubtedly rich. Moreover, it appears memories of the 2. It took many years and a huge stock market rally, but it seems not owning stocks is now the one investment strategy thatll draw looks of pity at the neighborhood cocktail party. In recent years, Ive comforted myself by occasionally rebalancing back to my portfolios target percentages and by noting that foreign marketswhich account for more than 4. But lately, this hasnt been all that comforting. The reality is, if U. S. stocks dropped sharply, foreign stocks would likely also swoon and my nest egg would take a huge hit. To make matters worse, I have less time to recover from a market decline and less regular monthly savings to take advantage of lower stock prices. Ten years ago, the world looked very different. My 4. 4 year old self would be rooting for a bear market, knowing that I was still saving voraciously and still had decades to retirement. But Im not 4. 4, but rather 5. Where Bigger is Better. Home Recent Pictures. I eye retirement, I think about Bill Bernsteins comment. If I have already won the game, why would I keep playing Risk Unrewarded.  As I see it, if you own a globally diversified portfolio of index funds, there are only four legitimate reasons to ease up on stocks. Body Inflation GameBody Inflation GameFirst, you might sell as part of a regular rebalancing program. Second, you might unload stocks as you approach retirementand continue to do so once retiredas you look to draw income from your portfolio. Third, you might sell if you no longer need to take so much risk, because youre financially well ahead of where you need to be. Fourth, you should probably lighten up on stocks if you cant afford to take so much risk, because the consequences of a big market decline would be so devastating. In a 2. 01. 5 article for The Wall Street Journal, Bill offered a series of benchmarks You should aim to have at least 2. Need 4. 0,0. 00 from your portfolio and plan to call it quits at 6. Bills rule suggests you need a 1 million portfolio. The fear, of course, is that we arrive at modest long run stock returns by having atrocious short run results. What if your nest egg is smaller than Bills benchmarks He argues you should favor a more conservative portfolio, perhaps with 6. That way, you run less risk that your need for incomecoupled with a vicious stock market declinewill eviscerate your portfolio and leave you eating cat food. Body Inflation GameThose who are at, or comfortably above, Bills benchmarks have more of a financial cushionand can afford to keep more in stocks. But should you Youve won the game. Should you continue to play aggressively, with a view to enriching your heirs or your favorite charities, or dial down the risk, so you can live out your days knowing that only financial Armageddon could derail your comfortable retirement Bills article is available online, but you may need to subscribe. Calling It Quits.  I think Bills benchmarks are a great guide. India reelected to UN body on economic, social issues Pakistan loses out India obtained 183 votes, the second highest after Japan in the Asia Pacific category, and. Could students face paying fees to secure accommodation but move in after the ban Continue Reading. Venezuelas tripledigit annual inflation rate is set to jump to more than 2,300 percent in 2018, the highest estimate for any country tracked by the. But Id throw in an additional caveat It strikes me that the range of possible U. S. stock returns is especially large right now. Body Inflation GameAs I discussed in a relatively recent blog, we have unusually high valuations, historically fat profit margins and an economy destined to grow slowly because the labor force is growing slowly. This is a recipe for modest long run stock returns. Those returns should be better than bonds, which will likely fare even worse, given todays low bond yields. And if thats what we get every yearmodest stock returns that are somewhat better than bondswe should consider ourselves lucky. The fear, of course, is that we arrive at those modest long run stock returns by having atrocious short run results. Thats not a problem for younger workers, who will be able to buy shares at bargain prices. CIRRHOSIS advanced liver disease INTRODUCTION Cirrhosis is a chronic liver disease often associated with alcoholism. After heart disease and cancer, cirrhosis is. Meet Marijs, fulltime traveler and founder of this blog, Rooftop Antics. Until recently Marijs was working for one of the worlds biggest fashion brands. But its a grave danger for those near or in retirement Selling stocks at fire sale prices, either out of panic or because you need income, can cause massive financial damage. What are the portfolio implications My assumption is that a global stock portfolio will return 5 to 6 a year over the long haul and a mix of high quality corporate and government bonds might return 2. Lets assume results come in at the lower end of the range, with stocks at 5 and bonds at 2. Lets also assume were aiming to fund a 3. We want a portfolio that permits us to withdraw 4 in the first year, equal to 4,0. To make it through 3. Based on my assumed returns, investors could hit that 3. This calculation is, I admit, a tad unrealistic, because it assumes we earn the same return year after year. Depending on whether we get good or bad results early in retirement, we might need a lower or higher average return. Still, it gives a sense of how conservative investors could potentially be. And yet Im not about to cut my stock holdings to 3. Not even close. Partly, its because I would like to earn more than 3. Partly, its because my retirement might last longer than 3. But truth be told, Im also not yet ready to quit the gamewhich suggests that perhaps Im not being entirely rational. Getting Exercised. MY GOAL IS TO WORKOUT for at least 4. I figure that, if Im saving for a 3. I should make sure my body lasts almost as long as my money. During my daily 4. I get to see my fellow humans at play. This can be a source of some consternation. A few examples Those who hold phone conversations while running. Are the folks on the other end of the line at all bothered Or did they dial a 9. Those who slump, unmoving, on the exercise equipment for minutes at a time. Surely the couch would be a better place to take a nap Those who eat while exercising. I remember a gentleman on the neighboring exercise bike at a Beverly Hills hotel, who talked to a friend and ate a muffin while slowly pedaling. All I could think was, speed up, my good man, or youll take on more calories than youre shedding. Septembers Greatest Hits. HERE ARE THE SEVEN most popular blogs from last month September also saw continued heavy traffic for the various 1. Humble. Dollar first published in July and August. Also check out two other lists, one with the 1.